Rain Rain Go Away....Randy Johnson Goes for #300, Today

Forecasting, the Tuttle Way....



(1st GAME OF THE DOUBLEHEADER)

The future "LOCK" Hall of Famer (at least in my humble opinion); Randy Johnson, goes for his 300th win, tonight vs. Washington. The Nationals, won last night (in a game in which I was on SF), and prior to their victory last night; they had lost 8 of 9. They have the worst record in MLB, and they're the only in MLB under 20 total wins (they still have not reached 15, yet), and their Ace (at least from a "stuff" standpoint, Jordan Zimmermann) gets the call in what could be a very historic game.


Zimmermann, who hasn't had a lot of luck this season with his battery mates; has an ERA over (6)...6.07 to be precise. And, Randy Johnson's ERA is at a very "meaty" 5.71. So, why is this total only 8.5??? Well, I'll tell you "why"....


A. The oddsmakers are accounting for the DFR (Drastic Form Reversal), in the fact that last night's affair had a final score attached to it of (10-6), and was an easy "over".


B. Both pitchers own a 3 to 1 or better (at least in the case of Zimmermann, 47k's to only 12 walks) strikeout to walk ratios.


C. Finally (and this stat dates back to last season), Jordan Zimmermann's average "run support" in the games in which he takes a "Loss", is a whopping 3.25. And this season it's more of the same. In his last four trips to take the hill; he's got a record of (0-1), with three "No Decisions". Additionally, his teammates have only supplied (16) total runs in those games.



16/4 = 4, and a DEFINITE "STATE OF REGRESSION" CAN/SHOULD BE 100% "FORESEEABLE"; AFTER SCORING (10), TUESDAY NIGHT!!!



Now that you "know" my reasoning....BET THIS TOTAL; MAKE SOME EASY CASH; PAY ME, and become a Paying Client! First Pitch is scheduled for 4:05EST.



p.s. Always remember one thing..."Figures don't lie, and Liars Figure."





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Better to be lucky than good...

The final 25 players that came to the plate in the KC @ Tampa game (when the score was still at 9-0) comprised the final 23 outs of the game. Jeff Niemann's masterful 2-hit shutout, certainly didn't hurt. And with the exception of an incredibly bad 2-2 pitch (that led to Ben's Zobrist's Grand Slam); Brian Bannister truly didn't pitch all that bad.


There's a section in my book "Betting Baseball '09" where I talk about a stat that I like to keep track of called: "Closing the Deal". The Closing the Deal stat pertains to the percentage of times that a pitcher induces an out (any kind of an out, not just a strikeout), when he's ahead of the batter 0-2 or 1-2, in the count.


As astonishing of an anomaly as this may sound, it is also 100% true... Brian Bannister gave up all 8 earned runs, during his 3.2 innings pitched, and 7 of Tampa Bay's first 8 hits; when there was already 2 strikes on each individual opposing hitter. It's this attention to detail (and not just in the note-taking process), that I harp on in all of my sports and/or horse handicapping books. Because, it is only through this attention to detail that one can do any kind of real/proper "scouting".


Meanwhile, as I was watching a minor act of God take place (because my top pick of the day was the under 9.5, in said game); I was also keeping track of the under 9.5 in the Boston/Detroit game. The Boston @ Detroit game was 4-0 going to the top of the 8th (and certainly had the "feel" of an under), but, Boston came up with a 6th run top of the 8th and put the game over by themselves.


So what does this all mean? It means, that if you're steadfast and true in your belief systems (as I am, and as I teach), and you do not deviate from your solemn belief in "the numbers"; then the gambling gods WILL treat you kindly.


Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle