Part Two....sort of...You'll have to also read the blog above & below!

Excerpt from "The Numbers Don't Lie: Ultimate Football Handicapping"....Not yet released.



"...5-year average, for redzone possessions per team/per season is: 58 a season.


We've already established that the average amount of points per redzone possession is 5.4 Now 5.4 X 58 = 313.2...


Obviously, not every team is going to score an average of 313 points for the season.

Plus, this number only accounts for 85% of their total scoring chances.


So lets take the Lions as an example. They've only averaged 49 redzone possessions a season over the last 5 years. Then, 9 (the number of possessions less than the league average) x 5.4 is an estimated 49. 313 - 49 gives us 264.

264/16 gives us 16.5, or an estimated 17 points a game. In the 2008/2009 season the Detroit Lions only averaged 3.8 points per redzone possession. Now, if you add 5.4 to that number; you'll derive a 9.2 number, that must be divided by 2; which equals 4.6. 4.6 x 49 = 225.4/16 gives you 14.08.


Now, that we've created two different aggregates we simply add them together, and divide by 2. So, 17 + 14 = 31/2 = 15.5. Now over the course of a 16 game season, one game is equivalent to 6.25% of said season. And, this 6.25 percentile accounts for one truly awful game throughout a team's season, as a state of regression.


Now, in the case of Detroit (who went 0-16 last year), there's no place for them to go but "up". So for this impending season, they are in a state of progression. And as such, we will not be subtracting 6.25%, but adding 6.25% (primarily because they finished with a losing record, and this will apply for all teams with a losing record).

Additionally (since they were 0-16), 16/16ths equals 1-whole.

So, we will add 7.25% to this 15.5 projected average, and that will give us the precise number of points per game that Detroit should average, for the 2009/2010 season, just within the redzone. 7.25% of 15.5 is 1.12. 15.5 + 1.12 = 16.62 But remember, there is still another 15% of scoring variables we must account for.

So, 2.49 is 15% of 16.62.

And if we add those two numbers together (16.62 + 2.49) this will give us our projected points per game for the Detroit Lions, which equates to 19.11, or an estimated (19) points per game.


The process is different for teams that meet or exceed (49+ redzone attempts per year) the 5-year league average, of redzone tries per regular season.


Now let us assume that the SuperBowl Champion Steelers, are about to play Detroit, up in Detroit. The Steelers were 12-4 during last year's regular season (and for all teams with an above .500 record I assume one win less the following season), and I would put the Steelers at 11-5 for the upcoming season.


Now, 11/16 is 0.68.

0.68 + 6.25 gives us a 6.93 regression rate (for the Steelers), for the impending 2009/2010 season.Over the last 5 years, Pittsburgh's average redzone possessions is higher than the league average (64.2). Their aggregate points per redzone possession, is 4.85. 4.85 X 64.2 = 311.37.


311/16 is 19.43 points a game. Plus, we must not forget about that other 15%, and that puts the Steelers @ 19.43 + 2.91 = 22.34. 22.34 - 6.93 (their impending "state of regression") = 21.63, or an estimated (22) points per game.


Now, all of us "know" that Pittsburgh is more than 3pts better than Detroit! So, how do we properly use these numbers afforded to us; so we can correctly predict the point spread?


Well, I'm now going to divulge that information to you...Last season Pitt finished with (12) wins, and Detroit finished with (0). So, at 1pt/per (added win), that would equate to (12) + (3) = 15. And, since teams with winning records get 6-points for HFA (Home Field Advantage), and teams with losing records, only (4). Then, the spread in Detroit should be listed @ (-11) in favor of Pitt. And had they been the "Home Team", I would still give (+6) to the (11) number, and that would give us a derived number of (-17).

If you find yourself wondering "why" Pitt isn't a (-21) point favorite (if they had been the home team), it's because I ALWAYS handicap games (initially) as though the "Dog" is always the home team. This adds to your/my overall objectivity...."





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle