Note the Timestamp.....12 & a half hours in advance...(4-0) if Texas hangs-on!!!!!

Below, is an email from some jealous IDIOT! Then, below is my retort. If ya want a good laugh, keep reading!


Email from retarded jealous toad...


You are a douche bag and a liar!Friday, July 10, 2009 9:29 PM

From: "kimma1015@aim.com" Add sender to ContactsTo: jjtuttle131@yahoo.com

You can talk all you want about other people on your dumb blog site. But you have nothing to show for it because you are a REDBOARDING LIAR!

Signed,

Joseph J Turtle


Now, my retort.....


They call this "A Clean Sweep".....www.totallyteasersonly.com (4-0)

--- On Fri, 7/10/09, joey tuttle wrote:


From: joey tuttle
Subject: Fw: 07/10/09 (3-1 or 4-0) www.totallyteasersonly.com
To: kimma1015@aim.com
Date: Friday, July 10, 2009, 11:27 PM


OVER 150 PERSONS RECEIVED THIS EMAIL, AND HERE'S A FEW OF THAT 150+ NUMBER!!!!!........DB!!!!!!!!! ALL I DO IS WIN....WHY? Because I'm a WINNER!!!! UNLIKE YOU, LOSER!

--- On Fri, 7/10/09, joey tuttle wrote:


From: joey tuttle
Subject: 07/10/09 (3-1 or 4-0) www.totallyteasersonly.com
To: "Eduardo Díaz"
Date: Friday, July 10, 2009, 6:34 AM



PHILS, DET, TEX, AND CINCY.......FOR FRIDAY NIGHT!


Please write back to confirm. And, make sure to check out these two great sites: www.footballwinner4ever.com, or www.fbw4ever.com, and the old standby...

www.thetuttleway.com



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

The Kiss Method....Click to view.

Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

I love my life, and I love my future Wife!!!

Maybe, I'm rubbing-off on her to a degree that I never could have imagined.
Or, maybe,the truth is that I'm really this good of a teacher?

See, just last night, I watched my beautiful future wife (Jennifer Lynn) absolutely put fear into the hearts and minds of older & more experienced poker players. She instinctively knows when to bluff, and has a complete understanding of how to "read the board"!

And that segues nicely into the announcement that I'm about to make.


I've decided to write a series of poker books. In addition, I'm inviting any/all of you to join FullTiltPoker.com, because, I'm going to start running "private" tournaments through their website. If interested, simply email me, and I'll put your email address inside of a special mailing list. Then (over the next few days), you should receive an invitation from me.

p.s. I'll even leave you with a little hint about our playing styles: Jen plays fast & loose, and I play faster & looser!!!


www.totallyteasersonly.com



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Excerpt from next year's book "Betting Baseball 2010".

Excerpt from next year's book "Betting Baseball 2010".


"....In "Betting Baseball 09" I briefly talked about a stat that I meticulously keep track of: I call it "Closing the Deal". And, in CTD I'm looking for the percentage of batters retired (in any form, not just via the strikeout) by a pitcher, after he's acquired two strikes on each batter faced.

Now as I'm writing this (it is 4:29amEST, on July 5th, 2009), and I just finished watching the archived gamecast (through MLB.TV) of the Detroit @ Minnesota game. Now, as a basic rule of thumb, a 7 to 8-percent margin, usually equates to 1 full run (as it pertains to the final outcome), and this game was no different.

Liriano retired (13 of 16), or 81%, and as a team: The Twins were a rock steady (16 of 20), or 80%.
Jackson (starting pitcher for Detroit), was also 81%, but his teammates (namely the bullpen), were a below average (3 of 6). So (as a team), they went (16 of 22), and that's only 73%! There was an overall differential of 7%, and the Twins went onto a well-played (4-3) victory...."

Buy the book "Betting Baseball 09" by J. Frederick O' Leary, if you truly want to improve your winning percentage for the remainder of this baseball season. It is currently selling on Amazon.com.





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!!!!

07/04/09.......HAPPY 4TH OF JULY!!!! And, for the (37) of you that wrote-in for the free selection (SF-124), I'm glad that I could help. As a special promotion, if you were 1 of those 37 persons that asked for that easy winner; you're now eligible to receive a free week of service. All you need to do now, is sign-up for the two-week trial, and you'll get one extra week of service for FREE!



p.s. Make sure to check out the "tease" page @ www.totallyteasersonly.com.





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Money Goes to Money!!!!!! Do Yourself a Favor, and Become a Paying Client of Mine.

Messages


Date Message

FedEx Tracking Number
Dear Mr Tuttle
Account: *****
The FedEx Tracking number for your $9000 payout with reference number 887541664-325546399 is 995139293000. Depending on the time of day FedEx begins processing your package, it make take up to 72 hours before your tracking information is posted online.

Please note that your check may be issued for an amount between $0.01 and $0.15 more than the amount processed from your Bodog account. This additional amount is added at our expense and will not be reflected in your Bodog account.

Also kindly note that FedEx requires a signature upon delivery, unless you have previously provided them with a release form. If no one is available to sign for your package, we suggest you contact FedEx to arrange for delivery at another time. If no one is available to sign for the package, it may be returned to us at your expense.

Best Regards,

Customer Service
Bodog. Play Hard.
service@bodog.com
1-888-263-0000 ext. 2

The Last of My Free Advice....(on this site) You can always check out www.totallyteasersonly.com

Now, I know that a lot of you want to be "your own man", and I'm going to allow you such an opportunity. Below are the 2008/2009 team-by-team redzone area - average points per possession. Additionally, I'm also going to show each teams 5-year average for redzone attempts.

And, since you now know the principles of the two slightly differing formulas; you'll now be able to compute (in your own manner), at your liesure. And I DO encourage "tinkering" or "tweaking".


ARI 4.8 (59)
ATL 4.8 (59)
IND 4.7 (74)
KC 4.6 (59)
BAL 4.6 (56)
CAR 4.5 (54)
CHI 4.4 (53)
NYG 4.4 (67)
SF 4.4 (52)
SEA 4.4 (59)
GB 4.3 (59)
JAX 4.3 (58)
NO 4.3 (59)
PIT 4.3 (64)
MIA 4.2 (53)
TEN 4.1 (58)
SD 4.1 (68)
PHI 4.1 (60)
NE 4.1 (74)
CIN 4.1 (61)
DAL 4.0 (59)
DEN 4.0 (63)
BUF 3.9 (53)
CLE 3.9 (51)
MIN 3.9 (57)
OAK 3.9 (45)
WAS 3.8 (56)
STL 3.8 (57)
NYJ 3.8 (57)
DET 3.8 (49)
HOU 3.7 (53)
TB 3.5 (52)
NFL 4.2 (59)

Part Two....sort of...You'll have to also read the blog above & below!

Excerpt from "The Numbers Don't Lie: Ultimate Football Handicapping"....Not yet released.



"...5-year average, for redzone possessions per team/per season is: 58 a season.


We've already established that the average amount of points per redzone possession is 5.4 Now 5.4 X 58 = 313.2...


Obviously, not every team is going to score an average of 313 points for the season.

Plus, this number only accounts for 85% of their total scoring chances.


So lets take the Lions as an example. They've only averaged 49 redzone possessions a season over the last 5 years. Then, 9 (the number of possessions less than the league average) x 5.4 is an estimated 49. 313 - 49 gives us 264.

264/16 gives us 16.5, or an estimated 17 points a game. In the 2008/2009 season the Detroit Lions only averaged 3.8 points per redzone possession. Now, if you add 5.4 to that number; you'll derive a 9.2 number, that must be divided by 2; which equals 4.6. 4.6 x 49 = 225.4/16 gives you 14.08.


Now, that we've created two different aggregates we simply add them together, and divide by 2. So, 17 + 14 = 31/2 = 15.5. Now over the course of a 16 game season, one game is equivalent to 6.25% of said season. And, this 6.25 percentile accounts for one truly awful game throughout a team's season, as a state of regression.


Now, in the case of Detroit (who went 0-16 last year), there's no place for them to go but "up". So for this impending season, they are in a state of progression. And as such, we will not be subtracting 6.25%, but adding 6.25% (primarily because they finished with a losing record, and this will apply for all teams with a losing record).

Additionally (since they were 0-16), 16/16ths equals 1-whole.

So, we will add 7.25% to this 15.5 projected average, and that will give us the precise number of points per game that Detroit should average, for the 2009/2010 season, just within the redzone. 7.25% of 15.5 is 1.12. 15.5 + 1.12 = 16.62 But remember, there is still another 15% of scoring variables we must account for.

So, 2.49 is 15% of 16.62.

And if we add those two numbers together (16.62 + 2.49) this will give us our projected points per game for the Detroit Lions, which equates to 19.11, or an estimated (19) points per game.


The process is different for teams that meet or exceed (49+ redzone attempts per year) the 5-year league average, of redzone tries per regular season.


Now let us assume that the SuperBowl Champion Steelers, are about to play Detroit, up in Detroit. The Steelers were 12-4 during last year's regular season (and for all teams with an above .500 record I assume one win less the following season), and I would put the Steelers at 11-5 for the upcoming season.


Now, 11/16 is 0.68.

0.68 + 6.25 gives us a 6.93 regression rate (for the Steelers), for the impending 2009/2010 season.Over the last 5 years, Pittsburgh's average redzone possessions is higher than the league average (64.2). Their aggregate points per redzone possession, is 4.85. 4.85 X 64.2 = 311.37.


311/16 is 19.43 points a game. Plus, we must not forget about that other 15%, and that puts the Steelers @ 19.43 + 2.91 = 22.34. 22.34 - 6.93 (their impending "state of regression") = 21.63, or an estimated (22) points per game.


Now, all of us "know" that Pittsburgh is more than 3pts better than Detroit! So, how do we properly use these numbers afforded to us; so we can correctly predict the point spread?


Well, I'm now going to divulge that information to you...Last season Pitt finished with (12) wins, and Detroit finished with (0). So, at 1pt/per (added win), that would equate to (12) + (3) = 15. And, since teams with winning records get 6-points for HFA (Home Field Advantage), and teams with losing records, only (4). Then, the spread in Detroit should be listed @ (-11) in favor of Pitt. And had they been the "Home Team", I would still give (+6) to the (11) number, and that would give us a derived number of (-17).

If you find yourself wondering "why" Pitt isn't a (-21) point favorite (if they had been the home team), it's because I ALWAYS handicap games (initially) as though the "Dog" is always the home team. This adds to your/my overall objectivity...."





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Numerologists Don't Sleep! A very cool read...

Over the past 5 seasons in the NFL, there have been 9,305 redzone scoring attempts. Touchdowns & Field Goals (combined), there have been 7,886 total conversions within the redzone. Now, that equates to an 85% success rate.

Or, it could mean the following:

81% of ALL game scoring (TD's and FG's), occurs within the redzone parameters; 7% accounts for ALL TD's scored at distances of 26 to 81 yards; 4% are ALL interceptions for Touchdowns, and lastly, 2% of ALL Touchdown scoring comes from kickoff and/or punt returns, for a touchdown. Now, if you're wondering where's the missing 6%, KEEP READING!


A whopping 52% (or 4846 out of 9305) went for a TD! And, 33% went onto only score a FG, over these past five seasons. Which means, 15% of the time NO POINTS WERE SCORED!!! But, I'm SURE that 8 to 9% of the 15-percentile consisted of either missed FG's, or teams needing a touchdown (ONLY) TO WIN OR TAKE THE LEAD, OR TIE!

So, the missing 6% of ALL drives is consumed by all of those possessions whereby a team "took a knee", either just before the half, or at the end of a game. And, if you think about it for a minute; 6 out of every 100 sounds extremely accurate, doesn't it?!


Now here's what is really interesting....

Assuming that each team averages (the 5-year average), 3 redzone possessions per game, then, we can automatically "assume" (please forgive my redundancy, I still haven't slept), each team will score a minimum of 16.2 points, in said game. Reason being, if 52% go for touchdowns; that equates to 48% of 7 (the value of a full TD) which is 3.4pts. And if 33% of ALL redzones possessions went for FG's; that means 67% of (3) is (2), and as such, 3.4+2.0 = 5.4 x 3 - 16.2. GOD IS IT FUN TO HAVE MY BRAIN! Why wouldn't you want to put someone (LIKE ME) in charge to do the brainwork for ya?!


I do not know the VEGAS point total "average per game", on NFL games. But, my best/professional guess would be right around (44), over the course of an entire season. This, leads me to a very perplexing question...Why don't an incredibly high percentage of games go "over" their posted total?


Simple Answer: The DFR (Drastic Form Reversal)!!! Just look at the Atlanta Falcons from the beginning of last season: 34, 9, 38, 9. Those were their game-by-game point totals, during their first 4-games! And, I can thank the NFL for helping me develop my Progression/Regression Theorem, for the World of sports betting.


In closing, I'm diligently working on a score prediction module (or model), and if you've enjoyed this posting; I'll divulge more via a personal email. My primary email address is: jjtuttle131@yahoo.com



p.s. Make sure to read the posting below this one! Would a "Con-Man" really show this type of dedication??? Just something a few IDIOTS should ponder!





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

A more than fair warning to one of you DB's....(Mr. Mitzen's or Sporthandicapper's recent youtube comments)

At the very bottom of this post, is a recently written comment on my old youtube profile page.

This, Sir (Mr. Mitzen's or Sporthandicapper's recent youtube comments), is SLANDER! Initially, you start off by making the inference that I'm homosexual, which I'm not! I know for sure (as I told my attorney), that this is either you or Mr. "Sporthandicapper", because, I remember the same verbiage being used (about "pumping out a book a month"), once before in a posting somewhere. So, when you go onto say that I..."..crank out more than a book a month." this is an extremely inaccurate statement, and I can prove it.

These statements are (by definition), slanderous remarks. Or, at the very least (according to my attorney), "Defamation of character". The last book that I had published by createspace was in late March: "Football Betting the Tuttle Way: Tease Me and Please Me: A Book for the Serious Football Bettor".


* Paperback: 282 pages
* Publisher: CreateSpace (March 30, 2009)
* Language: English
* ISBN-10: 1442133449


Now, the individual that goes by the name "Sporthandicapper" is a known associate of yours for he is listed in your Amazon profile as a "friend or person of interest". So, if you're NOT the author of the below comments; I strongly suggest that you write to my primary email address @ jjtuttle131@yahoo.com, so that I can forward it to my attorney. But, if indeed you are the author of the comments below (and of all the many comments that you've written on many of my books, currently selling on Amazon); I would advise you to take ALL OF THEM down, ASAP!

Because, as I'm writing this blog; my attorney is drafting correspondence to the proverbial higher-ups at Amazon. In which he is going to be asking for full disclosure of any/all records (address, phone number, etc), of your profile and of Mr. Sporthandicapper's. Under advice of counsel, I was told to have no more correspondences (after this) until he hears back from Amazon.com.

So, if indeed you two do know one another, I think it would be wise to start removing all of your slanderous remarks; that may be posted at other venues, other than just Amazon.com. Because, if my attorney finds anything else (anywhere else), a liable suit will commence against one or both of you.



"I don't know or care about his sexual proclivities, but the man cranks out more than a book a month on every sport under the sun and has been demonstrated in many Amazon reviews to give spurious information and invent statistics and uses "sock puppets" (fake accounts) to post positive reviews of his own books. He's also been challenged to take part in a free national online handicapping contest along with one of his detractors to see who does better but refuses to even acknowledge the challenge, much less accept. Sadly, he's a fraud pitching self-published books, online sportsbook referrals, tip services, etc., etc., etc. with no evidence to back up his claims of being a professional gambler and having been shown to have a poor understanding of even the simplest of concepts. Check out his books on Amazon and read the reviews (especially the comments) for corroborating evidence of what I say."



Signed,
Joseph J. Tuttle

I'm STILL the KING of Hollywood Park, Northfield Park, and Los Alamitos...Last Night, I hit for nearly 6,200.00, on a 90.00 dollar investment!!!

Thank You, Cheryl Charlton!!! If you're ever in sunny Florida, I want to take you out to dinner with me & my Wife. Who knows, maybe the upcoming Hialeah Quarter Horse meeting is in your future....Below, is my actual graded ticket from www.TVG.com, and I also hit it at www.bodoglife.com.

Now, even though I'm a huge advocate of NOT wagering through commingled outlets; I still like a lot of what TVG offers. And, not just to me, but to their loyal following. They are GREAT in the PR & PAYOUTS department(s). I ONLY talk of these two companies (at least primarily), in ALL of the horse betting books that I have written.

Additionally (as a part of being in the commingling @ TVG), I was 1 of 21 persons and/or tickets alive to the #2 horse. Furthermore (in playing (1) ticket @ TVG); I cost myself roughly 5%, or 150.00 extra dollars, at Bodog! One more thing...The $2 parlay (on the four winners in question), would have only paid: 1378.00. There's some amazing value in Pick-3 and Pick-4 wagering, wouldn't you agree?! And, if you really want a jaw-dropper....THE EARLY DOUBLE WAS ONLY 20 BUCKS!!!


6/28/2009 8:16 PM 144B008973A6 Los Alamitos 1 $1.00 P4 1,2,3,4,5/4,5,7/2,4,5/2 ONLINE $45.00 $3,097.20



***ALL OF MY BOOKS CAN BE PURCHASED ON Amazon.com.***


p.s. If any of you are wondering how I cam-up with Ms. Charlton's 30-1 winner (in the 3rd race); buy the books "Perfect Speed Handicapping" and "The Tuttle Definitive" (links to both are below).


http://www.amazon.com/Perfect-Speed-Handicapping-Calculator-Make/dp/1442122994/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1246269260&sr=1-1


http://www.amazon.com/Tuttle-Definitive-Serious-Horseplayers-Professionalism/dp/1441411496/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1246269176&sr=8-1





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

An actual letter to a brand new paying client.....After an (0-2) Day!

Sunday, June 28, 2009 6:29 PM
From:
"joey tuttle"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
j.com


J,

I'm borderline embarrassed that we're about to go 0-2. And to be honest, my 25%er play, might have been a clear case and point of being on the wrong side of a fixed game; especially given the fact that the Cards played like bushers the entire game.

Example: Bottom of the 9th, 1st & 2nd, one out (and idiot Jason Larue at 2nd base), and on a hard hit ball up the middle, Larue doesn't score. As a matter of fact, because he held up rounding 3rd, Thurston was caught in the middle (between 2nd & 3rd), and was tagged out for the 2nd out of the inning. So, instead of having bases loaded one out (and let me count the ways that we should of/could of won), it was 1st and 3rd, two outs.

Counting the ways...

If it had been bases loaded, one out, here are just a few of the ways we could have won:

1. Wild Pitch
2. Passed Ball
3. Balk
4. Walk
5. Hit
6. Sac Fly
7. Hit by Pitch
8. Catcher Interference
9. Home Run
10. Error
11. Slow dribbler in which the double play didn't start by going to home, first

And to really add salt to the wound there were a grand total of 13 men left in scoring position (between the two teams). So clearly (even though we lost), we were on the right side with the over. Plus, Liriano pitched a no hitter for the first 4 innings, and given his season's stats, that was completely unforeseeable.

Who knows, maybe Jason Larue had his money on the under? Because, my girl could have scored from 2nd on the ball that was hit up the middle.

Nevertheless, I'm embarrassed to the point whereby, if you send $550.00 to jgold5@hotmail.com; that will be a $300 savings to you and you will officially become a 25% paying client.

So in closing, assuming you played $200 on the total and $100 on the A's all you're really going to be down for the day is juice. I'm basically or essentially covering today's losses.

p.s. The top of the 9th was a nightmare as well. Twins had 1st and 3rd, one out (and a sac fly would have given us 9), and instead the next 2 batters struck out. And, the A's had 1st & 3rd,and nobody out (in the bottom of the 9th), and couldn't tag former Texas Longhorn; Houston Street (to at least tie it), and give us a fighting chance in extra innings!





Signed,
Joseph J. Tuttle

Handsome Ed hits a winner....

For as long as I can remember; Ed Burgart has been calling the races @ Los Alamitos. He's also a very sharp handicapper. Now, this Pick-4 is a far cry from the 23k one that Todd Schrupp hit many months ago; during the running of the Keeneland meeting. But, I'd be willing to wager that over the course of a full calender year, he'll end-up ahead of Todd Schrupp.


ED'S PICK LOS ALAMITOS RACES 7 THRU 10 $1 PICK 4 - $32 Ticket PAID: $148.80
Race 7 3
Race 8 1,2,4,5
Race 9 3,5
Race 10 1,3,4,7





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

06/26/09....My Friday Night Gift.....

Below, is an actual email sent to a paying client!



Frank,



Verlander is a projected 4.76, if he were to pitch 6.2 inn, tomorrow (his avg. per start)!


And, the projected total is 6.61....you see, Mr. Frank: I didn't give you ALL of the components!


Would you like to "know" Wandy's projections, and what it all means? Of course you do!!!


Wandy is a projected 4.20, and he's right at 6.0 inn. pitched per start.

Now, these numbers/projections include WCS (Worst Case Scenarios), and BEST CASE "Projections" currently stand @ 3.42+3.92 = 7.34.


7.34 + 8.96 = 16.30/2 = 8.15....8.15+6.61 = 14.76/2 = 7.38


The game (if it were to stay under), is a projected 7.38.


The oddsmakers have this game @ 7.5 on the total.....SHOCKING!!!!!!! "Tight Line", and no "value" in playing the under, and most "squares", WILL (play it under); because of Verlander, pitching!!! Hence why this is the precise analysis that my long-standing 25%ers will receive in their inbox.



THE PLAY IS ON THE "OVER-7.5!!!!




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Many years ago I developed a formula for predetermining/predicting MLB totals. So far (this month),I have a record of (22-7), or 76%.

If anyone is interested in knowing this formula, and has the means readily available, then, I strongly suggest that you scout the following four games.



06/26/09...MLB TOTALS


SF @ MILW.....CAIN VS. GALLARDO.....6.35....Actual Line: o/u is (7)......NO BET! ACCURATE LINE.

By far, the LOWEST PROJECTED TOTAL, of the day/night! But, I feel as though the line is too "tight". Although, lately, these "lowest projection game(s)", have been winning. Yesterday, the Stl/Mets game was a (3-2) final on a projected (4.31), on a closing line of (6.5)!!!


SD @ TEX.....SILVA VS. MILLWOOD.....8.18....Actual Line: o/u is (10).....PLAY ON: UNDER-10.../

If the Texas bats are sleeping early, and the SILVA kid gets through the line-up unscathed the first time around; this under should win. But, I have it rated only 3.5 out of 5-stars.



ANA @ ARIZ...WEAVER VS. BUCKNER.....7.76....Actual Line: o/u is (9.5)....PLAY ON: UNDER-9.5.../I rate this one a 4.5, out of 5-stars!


COLO @ OAK...HAMMEL VS. BRADEN......8.05....Actual Line: o/u is (9.0)....PLAY ON: UNDER-9....This one,is my least strongest of the day/night! And, if you noticed; the least amount of differential that exist out of these prescribed plays, is the 2nd closest, correct?!


So, my personal preference order goes like this:


1. ANA @ ARIZ und-9.5

2. SD @ TEX und-10.0

3. SF @ MILW und-7.0

4. COLO @ OAK und-9.0



p.s. My theorem for MLB totals can be purchased for a one-time fee of 2,000.00USD. Or, in (4) equally spaced intallments of 550.00USD.





Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

By Request.....

Some toad (hiding behind one of his many phony email addresses), wanted to see this article that was done on me, when I was just a kid. ****Former harness driver Seymour Tuttle is/was my Father. See, my parents were "Common-lawed", and an official name change to Tuttle; didn't occur until I was in my early teens. If you click on the picture; you'll see the full-size version of the article, and an ability to blow it up. And, if you look at the pictures of me, now, you'll see that it is indeed me!







Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

(15) GOLFERS!!! $2,950.00 to possibly win $18,750.00

For those who like to wager on golf, here are my wagers for this week. I'm posting this some 6+ hours prior to the first threesome that will tee-off @ 6:50EST.



Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 11:46p Single #173921599
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3738) Woody Austin 33/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 300.00 to win US$ 9900.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 11:46p Single #173921598
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3737) Stewart Cink 25/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 700.00 to win US$ 17500.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887207
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3791) Nathan Green 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887206
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3789) Rich Beem 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887205
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3787) John Rollins 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887204
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3786) Brett Quigley 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887203
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3783) Scott McCarron 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887202
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3782) Will Mackenzie 125/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 18750.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887201
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3780) Robert Garrigus 100/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 15000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887200
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3778) Stuart Appleby 100/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 15000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887199
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3777) Vaughn Taylor 100/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 15000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887198
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3776) Steve Flesch 100/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 15000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887197
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3768) Daniel Chopra 80/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 12000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887196
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3765) Pat Perez 80/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 12000.00

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 12:11p Single #153887195
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
PGA Tour - Odds to win the Travelers Championship -TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, Conn - June 25th @ 7 am EST
All wagers have Action. Singles Only. No Refunds.
(3764) Nick O'Hern 80/1 Thu@7:00a
Competitor:(3730) Hunter Mahan
Risk US$ 150.00 to win US$ 12000.00




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

A MUST READ!!!!!! Straight from www.totallyteasersonly.com

Pay Here!


Wednesday, June 24, 2009 11:34:06 PM

Recent Payout Requests....Straight from www.bodog.com. ALL I DO IS WIN!!! Become a paying client, and I'll make you more than your job!

Recent Payouts
Request Date Request Amount Paid Amount Date Completed Status

06/24/2009 11:01 PM US$5000.00 US$3000.00 Approved


06/23/2009 05:08 PM US$5000.00 US$5000.00 Approved
06/21/2009 11:07 PM US$3000.00 US$3000.00 Approved
06/21/2009 08:49 PM US$4000.00 US$4000.00 Approved



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle



06/24/09....Become a paying client

Date placed:
Jun 24, 2009 11:59a


Date settled:
Jun 24, 2009 10:27p

4 Team Parlay143886888
Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
(954) Toronto Blue Jays -140* Wed@7:05p


Final Scores
Cincinnati Reds 2
Toronto Blue Jays 8

Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
(956) Tampa Bay Rays -168* Wed@7:05p


Final Scores
Philadelphia Phillies 1
Tampa Bay Rays 7

Baseball - MLB (Game) Total
(961) Chicago Cubs vs. (962) Detroit Tigers Under 8½ (-105) Wed@7:05p

Game must go 9 innings (8.5 if home team is ahead) or this pick is NO ACTION.
Rich Harden (R) must throw first pitch for Chicago Cubs or this pick is NO ACTION.
Rick Porcello (R) must throw first pitch for Detroit Tigers or this pick is NO ACTION.

Final Scores
Chicago Cubs 3
Detroit Tigers 5

Baseball - MLB (Game) Total
(963) New York Yankees vs. (964) Atlanta Braves Over 8½ (-120) Wed@7:10p

Game must go 9 innings (8.5 if home team is ahead) or this pick is NO ACTION.
Joba Chamberlain (R) must throw first pitch for New York Yankees or this pick is NO ACTION.
Kenshin Kawakami (R) must throw first pitch for Atlanta Braves or this pick is NO ACTION.

Final Scores
New York Yankees 8
Atlanta Braves 4

Outcome:
Win

Risk US$590.00 to win US$5185.22*




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle




06/24/09....If you've been paying attention; the Yankees were the "Tred Play", tonight. They WIN (8-4)!!! Mr. Tuttle, myself (Katie Smyth), and out paying clients are now (29-8); using the trend talked about, below.


The email below, was sent to an actual client of mine. He works as a sportsbook manager, but I'm not at liberty to say where.

--- On Wed, 6/24/09, jjtuttle131@yahoo.com wrote:

From: jjtuttle131@yahoo.com
Subject: Proposition....
To: "Frankie" <>
Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2009, 5:09 AM


Frank,


Given your line of work, and the fact that you love numbers; I believe you may find this proposition to good to be true. But, it's not! I like seeing others prosper off of my mathematical genius.

PHIL/TB is a 7.46, and as such (meaning that this number is "off" by more than 1.5, for the actual total attached is 9), YOU SHOULD "LOAD-UP" on this Under-9!!!!!! The Astros game came-up as an 8.11, and with an 8.5 number....I'll "stay away"! At the time that I'm updating this for Mr. Tuttle, the TPhilly @ Tampa game is final (7-1), and the KC game is in the 9th, tied at (2-2). And, TB scored 5 in the 8th.....So, the total wasn't as close as in may have seemed.


Onto my proposition....You'll send me 1,500.00 now, and another 1,500.00 right before football season starts, and I'll give you a MASTER SHEET for the use of this formula.

I'll even give you two hints, if you feel like trying to decipher it, on your own.

A. At least one of the starters MUST be considered "exceptional" (either with his "stuff", or through his current statistics), and I will include my definitions of "exceptional".

B. Both pitchers MUST be coming off of a LOSS!


Example: The formula had tonight's SF/A's game @ 7.01, and the total was posted @ (8)! Both were coming off a LOSS, and clearly LINCECUM IS "EXCEPTIONAL", agreed?! So, the under was a WINNA!!!!!!

The game that I gave to you; going under the (8) in KC/HOU....Well, this game was a 7.03, and the final result was (2-1)!!! The Lincecum final was (4-1), and both EASY WINNAS!!! I'm a God!

Now, here's how having this at your disposal; can make a lot of money for YOU!!!


Imagine a guy calls-in a wager on tonight's under-7 in the SF/A's game. You'll now have the proper numbers to know when you should "lay it off", and/or bet it for yourself!

If interested, call me anytime after noon. 561.503.7804



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Recent Payout Requests....Straight from www.bodog.com. ALL I DO IS WIN!!! Become a paying client, and I'll make you more than your job!


Recent Payouts
Request Date Request Amount Paid Amount Date Completed Status
06/23/2009 05:08 PM US$ 5000.00 US$ 5000.00 Approved
06/21/2009 11:07 PM US$ 3000.00 US$ 3000.00 Approved
06/21/2009 08:49 PM US$ 4000.00 US$ 4000.00 Approved




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Make sure to read my "Tip of the Day" @ www.totallyteasersonly.com. And, you really should also read the blog below this one!

06/23/09.....Cards @ Mets


In this contest, we find ourselves looking at an extremely easy bit of "Line Interpretation", and my "Tip of the Day".


Over the past two days, the Cards have racked-up 12+4=16 total runs, or an average of (8). Meanwhile, the Mets have also "averaged" 6-runs per over their last two contests. Now, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that a "State of Regression" should take place. I mean, seriously, just look at where the oddsmakers put this total at: 8.5.


The two-day "average" is a projected (14), max, and a 50% regression rate (the Win/Lose variant); would give us a (7) number. 14+7= 21/2 = 10.5. So, with a line (on the total) of only 8.5 being posted; they (the oddsmakers) wanted YOU to play the "Over"!!! Knowing, that the true "probability" was that the "under" would actually come-in! Especially, when neither team is averaging at/or over 6-run a game, this season.




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

I think it's safe to call this a winner! And, Ana Won (4-3)!

At the time of this posting; SD leads Sea (9-2), at 12:01am EST.


Yes, I might break my arm patting myself on the back (in reference to my dedication), from time to time. But, just look at how handsomely it paid...no pun intended! Simply note the actual time in which I made said wager? Bottom line is: I WIN MORE THAN YOU, and if you're not getting my plays; you're just not winning!!!

And, as I'm writing this blog; the Angels met the trend criteria (of the trend that I wrote about, below), but are losing (3-2) in the 7th inning. If they were to comeback and win; the trend will then become an amazing (28-8). If it loses, then, it will still be (27-9), and the last time I checked: THAT'S STILL PRETTY AMAZING, for (27-9), is still 75%!!!


Date placed:
Jun 23, 2009 4:15a 4 Team Parlay #143840997
Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
INTERLEAGUE
(905) Boston Red Sox -140*
Competitor:(906) Washington Nationals
Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
INTERLEAGUE
(917) Minnesota Twins +103*
Competitor:(918) Milwaukee Brewers
Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
INTERLEAGUE
(921) Los Angeles Dodgers -103*
Competitor:(922) Chicago White Sox
Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline
INTERLEAGUE
(929) San Diego Padres +125*
Competitor:(930) Seattle Mariners
Risk US$ 555.00 to win US$ 8009.73
* Odds and win amount may not be the same as at time of placement, if a pitcher change takes place.*

Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle






(28-8), and counting!!! Monday, The Mets, were a Winna!!! Tuesday, we had the Angels+115.


From Monday's mass-mailer...A preview of the type of emailed analysis that is sent to you, if you choose the become a paying client.


Analysis: Assuming that Wellemeyer were to pitch into the 6th...The STL pitcher is a projected 2.95, if he "progresses" again, and a 7.88, if he doesn't...split the difference, and its a 5.41....if he allows 5 or more (within 5 innings pitched), THE METS WILL WIN, and HE WILL BE Yanked!! Plus, did you read the article, below? How can you go against a 76% trend?!





To All,


Below, is the best reason to become a paying client of mine...just read this, and my last 3 or 4 blogs @ www.thetuttleway.com www.totallyteasersonly.com


We all know that April 1st is "April Fools Day". But, in the realm of betting the bases; the entire month can be construed as a joke! A lot of "Funny Things" happen, in April. Here's a prime example.

If I had to venture a guess; I would say the 80% of the "Sharpies" know about the following "angle".... As a basic rule of thumb, teams that are perennially above .540 in win percentage, have an unusually high "bounce back" ratio. Except, in/during the month of April.


"Bounce Back" from what, you might be asking yourself?


A "bounce back game" occurs after a 4 or more run loss. And, in the month of April, the Boston Red Sox went (0-4), and since May 1st they have since gone (7-1)! Last time I checked; 88% "trends" are pretty good wagering opportunities.

Conversely, the New York Yankees went (3-2) during April (and they were not playing particularly good ball), and since May 1st they've gone (5-3), using that one simply parameter. So, this angle alone (since May 1st) has produced an overall record of (10-4), or a win percentage of 75%; with only implementing it on the two most popular teams in MLB!

I'm now going to take it a few steps further...I'm going to tell you my record (since May 1st); using the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels as well.

Phillies: (5-4)
Mets: (7-0)
LAD: (2-0)
LAA: (3-0)


Overall, among the (6) teams mentioned: (28-8), or 78%!!!!!! Knowing what you're looking for (in my humble opinion), is 90% of the proverbial battle!


GOOD LUCK!



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

A MUST READ FROM www.thetuttleway.com

A MUST READ FROM www.thetuttleway.com (26-8), and counting! Monday, The Mets!!! Assuming that Wellemeyer were to pitch into the 6th...The STL pitcher is a projected 2.95, if he "progresses" again, and a 7.88, if he doesn't...split the difference, and its a 5.41....if he allows 5 or more (within 5 innings pitched), THE METS WILL WIN, and HE WILL BE Yanked!! Plus, did you read the article, below? How can you go against a 76% trend?!

Originally sent on Saturday, June 20, 2009 2:06 AM.....Sent at that time, as a part of a mass-mailer.


To All,


Below, is the best reason to become a paying client of mine...just read this, and my last 3 or 4 blogs @ www.thetuttleway.com www.totallyteasersonly.com



We all know that April 1st is "April Fools Day". But, in the realm of betting the bases; the entire month can be construed as a joke! A lot of "Funny Things" happen, in April. Here's a prime example.

If I had to venture a guess; I would say the 80% of the "Sharpies" know about the following "angle".... As a basic rule of thumb, teams that are perennially above .540 in win percentage, have an unusually high "bounce back" ratio. Except, in/during the month of April.


"Bounce Back" from what, you might be asking yourself?


A "bounce back game" occurs after a 4 or more run loss. And, in the month of April, the Boston Red Sox went (0-4), and since May 1st they have since gone (6-1)! Last time I checked; 85% "trends" are pretty good wagering opportunities.

Conversely, the New York Yankees went (3-2) during April (and they were not playing particularly good ball), and since May 1st they've gone (5-3), using that one simply parameter. So, this angle alone (since May 1st) has produced an overall record of (10-4), or a win percentage of 75%; with only implementing it on the two most popular teams in MLB!

I'm now going to take it two-steps further...I'm going to tell you my record (since May 1st); using the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels.

Phillies: (5-4)
Mets: (6-0)
LAD: (2-0)
LAA: (2-0)


Overall, among the (6) teams mentioned: (26-8), or 76%!!!!!! Knowing what you're looking for (in my humble opinion), is 90% of the proverbial battle!

And for the record....Tomorrow, the Mets-105 are in play for 06/22/09.


GOOD LUCK!




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Wrong side of a fixed game???

Maybe it really is better to be lucky than good! Because (as all of you already know), the Phillies won it all last year, with a functional illiterate at the helm. The Phillies manager Charlie Manuel managed the final two innings of tonight's game no better than a functional illiterate would have. Now, allow me to elaborate.

To tell this story properly, we must first start with the bottom of the 7th. Going into the bottom of the 7th, the Phillies were losing 3-0. Then, after getting a couple of runs across the plate, and a crooked number on the board, with runners on first and third and 2 outs he plays the hero card, AND IT ACTUALLY WORKED! See, Ryan Howard didn't start tonight due to a 103 degree temperature, and he brought him in to pinch hit, and on a 2-1 count Ryan Howard hit a majestic blast well beyond the center field fence. So on one hand, the baseball Gods were nice to "Mr. Charlie", but that was soon about to change. And, "Mr. Charlie" proved once and for all (at least to me) that he really is just a functional illiterate.

After the O's went down quietly in the top of the 8th, the Phillies were a mere 3 outs away from a quality come from behind victory. But, "Mr. Charlie", once again showed his true colors. In the bottom of the 8th, the Phillies had their first 2 batters get on base. So. it was 1st and 2nd nobody out. What does "Mr. Charlie" do? Well, I'll tell you what he did. He played for the big inning and it back fired! Which coincidentally, is precisely what an American League manager would do.

Now had Bobby Cox been managing the Phillies tonight; he would have most definitely had the next guy up bunting, and there would have been runners at 2nd and 3rd and only one out. Then, a base hit brings home 2-runs, a sac fly brings home 1-run, a wild pitch brings home 1-run, and clearly the complexion of that inning could have had a different outcome. And for the record, MLB teams that have 1st & 2nd or 1st & 3rd, w/nobody out; score at least 1-run (in that 1/2 inning) a whopping 71% of the time. As for 1st & 2nd nobody out (62%), and 79% of the time when its 1st & 3rd and nobody out.



I bet he wishes he had scored a run or two, now, in the bottom of the 8th.


Additionally (and this is the really funny part), "Mr Charlie" had left-handed J.C. Romero warming up (as he was playing for his "big inning", in the bottom of the 8th), and it was two lefties that hit the homers off of right-handed Ryan Madson.


9th Inning: It was the two most diminutive players in the starting lineup; that went on to hit the home runs that eventually beat the Phillies 6-5. First, former Marlin Greg Zaun hits a solo shot (with a 2-2 count), to make it 5-4. Then, Oscar Salazar (cold off the bench I might add), and with 2 outs already made in the inning; hits a "seeing-eyed" single past Chase Utley, on a 1-2 count! Finally, the smallest player in the O's starting lineup (Brian Roberts) hits the go ahead 2-run homer, again, on a 1-2 count/pitch!


In my baseball book called "Betting Baseball '09", and in the one that I'm currently working on "Betting Baseball 2010"; I talk about a stat that I keep track of (with every game I watch), known as "Closing the Deal". "Closing the Deal" is my way of keeping track of the proverbial "extra outs". Meaning, I'm of the belief that if a pitcher gets 2 strikes on a hitter (whether its an 0-2 count or a 3-2 count), but especially if its 0-2 or 1-2, I believe the pitcher should "close the deal" and get the hitter to make an out; whether it be by way of strikeout, ground out, or fly out.

And if you were paying close attention to the above paragraph in italics: Ryan Madson allowed 3 of the final 4 batters he faced (that he had 2 strikes on), to not only reach base, but to also score.

And, considering that he had to face 6 batters (instead of the bare minimum 3 for a closer) for the entire inning; he was a poultry 1 of 4 in "Closing the Deal". And to truly put that 25 percentile in perspective; the closer for the LA Angels (Bryan Fuentes), who in my opinion is one of the weakest closers in all of Baseball, and who has blown seven save opportunities this year; has recently gone on a 6-game tear (without a blown save). And during his 6-game hot streak (of which, I've witnessed 2); he has gone 11 for 11 in the "Closing the Deal" category. Believe me, this is a stat worth tracking!


p.s. The Phillies were actually 1-strike away from victory, TWICE! LOOK WHAT IT TAKES TO BEAT ME!!! One more thing (from the blog below)....(26-8) is still 76%!!!




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

A MUST READ, IF YOU EVER WANT TO WIN!!!!!!

To All,


Below, is the best reason to become a paying client of mine...just read this, and my last 3 or 4 blogs @ www.thetuttleway.com www.totallyteasersonly.com



We all know that April 1st is "April Fools Day". But, in the realm of betting the bases; the entire month can be construed as a joke! A lot of "Funny Things" happen, in April. Here's a prime example.

If I had to venture a guess; I would say the 80% of the "Sharpies" know about the following "angle".... As a basic rule of thumb, teams that are perennially above .540 in win percentage, have an unusually high "bounce back" ratio. Except, in/during the month of April.


"Bounce Back" from what, you might be asking yourself?


A "bounce back game" occurs after a 4 or more run loss. And, in the month of April, the Boston Red Sox went (0-4), and since May 1st they have since gone (5-1)! Last time I checked; 83% "trends" are pretty good wagering opportunities.

Conversely, the New York Yankees went (3-2) during April (and they were not playing particularly good ball), and since May 1st they've gone (5-3), using that one simply parameter. So, this angle alone (since May 1st) has produced an overall record of (10-4), or a win percentage of 71%; with only implementing it on the two most popular teams in MLB!

I'm now going to take it two-steps further...I'm going to tell you my record (since May 1st); using the Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, and Angels.

Phillies: (5-3)
Mets: (6-0)
LAD: (2-0)
LAA: (2-0)


Overall, among the (6) teams mentioned: (25-7), or 78%!!!!!! Knowing what you're looking for (in my humble opinion), is 90% of the proverbial battle!

And for the record....Tomorrow, the R-Sox, and the Phils meet the criteria for this angle, on/for June 20th.

GOOD LUCK!




Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle

Small excerpt from a book I'm working on... "Betting Baseball 2010"

A few days ago I promised that I would write a few details that I'm going to include in next year's baseball betting book called "Betting Baseball 2010".

Oddly enough, if you take a look at the Wikipedia formala for determining OBA (opponents batting average), and if you were to look around in many baseball forums and/or at MLB.com; you'll find, that the two formulas will garner different final results. Now, I pride myself in being a realist. And, I'm also a big advocate of the KISS method (Keep It Simple Stupid).

Just to keep things very simple, I'm going to use a pitcher that has a solid number of total innings pitched for the season, instead of a guy that might have 80.1 or 80.2. We will take a guy that's pitching tonight for an example (June 19, 2009), and the pitcher is going to be Pittsburgh Pirate Ross Ohlendorf.

According to MLB.com, Mr. Ohlendorf is allowing players to bat .265 against him. Now if you were to utilize the Wikipedia formula, then, that number would be marginally higher. My formula (which is extremely rudimentary), incorporates the fact that there is almost never a single team that has a fielding percentage lower than .970.

This means, that there is never more than a 3% chance per ball in play (in any given game, or throughout the course of the season), that a team is going to make an error within the parameters of a game and/or a season. Example: The 4 worst teams in baseball, from a fielding perspective (Arizona, Seattle, Florida, Washington), are all currently sitting at .976.

Back on point...

Ross Ohlendorf, has pitched a grand total of 77 innings this season, and this equates to (77 x 3), or 231 total outs garnered. Now, if you add to that number his total base on balls (which is 22), and his total number of strikeouts (which is 39); you will arrive at a grand total of 292. Additionally, young Mr. Ohlendorf has allowed 76 total hits. Now if you divide 76 by 292 you'll come up with a .260 OBA. Then, if you add an additional 3 points to this number (accounting for the maximum chance of errors made); you'll now derive a final tally of .263, and in my humble opinion (mathematically speaking), this will give you the most accurate computation.

In addition, simply dividing (76) by the sole number of outs garnered (231); would lead you to a derived OBA of .329. Quite the disparity, wouldn't you agree? Now, this segues nicely into another one of my original "Tuttle Betting Theorems". .329 minus .263 is a differential of .066, and .066 x 27 = 1.782. Now, 1.782 x 4.5 equates to approximately 8.019.

Using that 8.019 derivative; you now have discerned the absolute maximum runs allowed said pitcher would give up, if he were to pitch poorly for a full 9 innings. Now we all know that a manager is not going to allow a pitcher that is pitching poorly to go a full 9 innings. So, by simply formulating an aggregate (of average innings pitched per start), one can "predict" how many runs said pitcher should give up, in his next start.

Still using young Mr. Ohlendorf as my guinea pig; he has pitched precisely 5.9 (or an estimated 6) innings per, during his 13 starts this season. 8.019 x 6 = 48.11 divided by 18 (the total number of outs that one would garner over 6 innings), would give us an exact number of of 2.67.

Now that you have this number at your disposal, and in conjunction with my progression/regression theorem; you'll now have the ability to predict, in advance, the total number of runs any pitcher should allow; if they do not meet or exceed their statistical capabilities.

In Ohlendorf's last game (vs. Detroit), he pitched 6 full innings, and in doing so he only had 1 "bad" inning. As we all know there are 9 innings to a game, thus making each inning equate to approximately 11%. So, Ohlendorf should regress by 27.50% (5.5 x 5). 27.50 divided by 6.0 equals 4.58. So, 4.58 + 2.67 = 7.25 + (his current ERA, which is at 4.56) = 11.81/2 = 5.90, and the amount of runs Ohlendorf should allow, tonight, if he were to pitch 6 full innings. Which means, if he were to not make it out of the 5th (hypothetically speaking); then he probably will wind up allowing 4 or 5 runs, guaranteed.

So in closing, given the fact that Colorado has won 13 of their last 14, and the fact that pitcher Jason Marquis (of Colorado) is the ultimate "Jekyll and Hyde" type pitcher; I believe that the "over 10" in this contest, CANNOT LOSE!!!



Signed,
Joseph J Tuttle